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There’s no doubt in the figures for the last two years, migration has played a part in housing. It’s impacted on our housing. And when one says that, one gets accused of dogwhistling. I’m not, it’s just a fact.1
Those were the words of Taoiseach Micheál Martin back in December 2025. A couple of weeks later, Tánaiste Simon Harris was doubling down on the same sentiments2.
Immigration is so often the scapegoat of choice for far-right groups. Worryingly though, it has suddenly reared its head in mainstream Irish politics and even some everyday conversations I have been having.
Rather than grapple with the moral case for immigration - which many have made far more articulately than I might do - let us instead cut straight to the core of this argument: would reducing immigration actually make houses more affordable?
How does immigration impact demand for housing?
The logic behind the “immigrants make houses more expensive” argument goes like this. Immigrants equate to an increase in the demand for housing. Increased demand results in higher prices.
People making this argument might point to a chart such as the one below. ‘Gotcha!’ they might say. ‘See! Net migration and the price of residential property have moved in the same direction for the past 2 decades.’ And it’s true - so is my race over before it’s even run?
Not quite. There is, of course, the smallest grain of truth in the argument.
It is absolutely true that a larger population demands more housing. It is also true that, in the short-term, housing supply is relatively “sticky”. Houses take time to build - a year can pass from obtaining planning permission to walking in the front door of your new home - so in the short-term it is quite easy for the demand for housing to quickly outstrip supply.
Migration is not the only driver of population growth though. Throughout Irish history, the contribution of migration to overall population growth has varied dramatically. In some decades, such as the 2000’s and 2020’s, migration has been a major driver of population growth. But in others - such as the 1990’s and 2010’s - its importance is far outweighed by natural growth. In some decades - such as the 1960’s and 1980’s - net migration was actually negative and population growth can be solely attributed to natural growth.
Thankfully we are yet to foster our own Xiaoping3 - it’s not too often you hear people calling for “solutions” to the “problem” of natural growth in Ireland. Perhaps then we can begin to surmise the true motives of those who frame immigrants as the cause of house price increases…
Housing demand is not only a function of population growth either. It is also a function of inequality. Those who earn more can afford more expensive properties. So maybe high-earning immigrants are squeezing low-earning Irish nationals even further out of the housing market?
Again, there is the smallest grain of truth to this argument. Are there nationalities who earn more than an Irish national on average? Yes - take Indians for example. But there are also nationalities who earn significantly less on average too - such as Ukrainians.
It's also worth noting that some nationalities are disproportionately represented in some of Ireland’s highest earning sectors.
For example, 14% of Indians are employed in the ICT sector. However, it is also true that other nationalities are disproportionately represented in some of Ireland’s lowest earning sectors - such as the 23% of Brazilians working in hospitality.
But still, let us suppose that immigrants are actually squeezing Irish nationals out of the housing market. We would expect to see better outcomes for non-nationals then, wouldn’t we?
Yet, we don’t.
Non-Irish nationals are more likely to be renting.
They are more likely to live in overcrowded conditions.
They are far more likely to spend unsustainable amounts of their disposable income on housing costs.
And finally: despite making up only 16% of the population4, non-nationals account for just over 50% of the adults in emergency accommodation5.
So sure, some high-earning immigrants are probably contributing in some small way to price pressures, competing for the most in-demand, expensive properties in the country. But the same can be said for the far larger number of high-earning Irish nationals.
In reality, many people who come to Ireland actually face worse housing outcomes than Irish nationals. If you’re worried about being pushed out of the housing market by high earners, your gripe shouldn’t be with immigrants - it should be with inequality.
How does immigration impact the supply of housing?
The “immigrants make housing more expensive” argument focuses exclusively on short-term housing demand - a half-baked analysis at best.
As we have said, population growth - both natural and due to migration - can result in the demand for housing outstripping housing supply in the short-term. But in the long run, population growth is a signal for the construction of housing.
Those positing that immigrants are driving rising house prices might point to the correlation between net migration and house prices we discussed at the beginning of the article. In retort I could point to a graph like this, that shows that as net migration increases so does the supply of housing.
Let us not forget how important non-Irish nationals are to the Irish economy either. In fact, 23% of people employed in the construction sector are non-nationals - literally helping to build the houses they are purportedly stealing.
Still not convinced?
Maybe you still aren’t buying it though. Maybe you look at the homelessness figures and think to yourself “Well, if they weren’t here they wouldn’t be homeless on Irish streets”. So let me put it beyond any doubt.
Last week, the UK Migration Advisory Committee published a report entitled Migration and housing costs: what does international evidence imply for the UK?.6 As the title suggests, 33 studies from around the world were systematically assessed to estimate the impact of immigration on the cost of housing.
Their findings? In countries with housing markets similar to the UK - a group which Ireland is specifically classified as belonging to in the report - a percentage point increase in the share of non-nationals in a population seems to equate, on average, to a 0.65% increase in house prices.
Let us do some quick math then. The share of the population in Ireland who were non-nationals in 2012 was about 12%7. Today, that share sits at about 16%. A 4 percentage point increase.
According to the above systematic review, house prices should have gone up by about 2.6% over the last 13 years. How much have house prices actually risen in that time? 159%. Yeah. It’s the immigrants.
If it isn’t illogical, it’s just racism
Making the economic case for immigration leaves a bad taste in my mouth. Yet the moral case doesn’t seem to be enough. Instead you have to reduce people to their economic contribution so that their presence - their existence even - can be justified.
But the economic case might not cut it either. The irrationality of blaming immigrants for the exorbitant cost of housing in Ireland is quite often driven by racism. If this article hasn’t convinced you, then it is very likely your perspective is built upon foundations I’m going to struggle to shake.
For those reading this who might have been misled though - be it by comments from our nation’s top bureaucrats, media coverage or right-wing commentators - I think you will now find the evidence incontrovertible.
In the wise words of Michael Byrne, Associate Professor at the School of Social Policy, Social Work and Social Justice at University College Dublin:
Let’s direct our energy toward fixing the system, not blaming its newest participants.8
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Reference list
BBC (2015). Explainer: What was China’s one-child policy? BBC News. [online] 29 Oct. Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-34667551.
Byrne, M. (2025). We must look honestly at the data on housing and migration. [online] Irish Examiner. Available at: https://www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/commentanalysis/arid-41702981.html.
Central Statistics Office (CSO) (2012). Press Release Census 2011 Profile 6 Migration and Diversity - CSO - Central Statistics Office. [online] www.cso.ie. Available at: https://www.cso.ie/en/csolatestnews/pressreleases/2012pressreleases/pressreleasecensus2011profile6migrationanddiversity/.
Central Statistics Office (CSO) (2025a). Population and Migration Estimates, April 2025 - Central Statistics Office. [online] Www.cso.ie. Available at: https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2025/.
Central Statistics Office (CSO) (2025b). Results and Analysis Distribution of Earnings by Nationality 2024 - Central Statistics Office. [online] Www.cso.ie. Available at: https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-den/distributionofearningsbynationality2024/resultsandanalysis/ [Accessed 20 Jun. 2026].
Coyne, E. (2025). ‘No doubt’ migration has played part in housing crisis and homelessness, says Taoiseach. [online] The Irish Times. Available at: https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2025/12/23/no-doubt-migration-has-played-part-in-housing-crisis-and-homelessness-says-taoiseach/.
Department of Housing (2026). Monthly Homelessness Report April 2026. [online] gov.ie. Available at: https://www.gov.ie/en/department-of-housing-local-government-and-heritage/publications/monthly-homelessness-report-april-2026/.
Harris, S. (2026). Politicians of the centre cannot shirk the migration debate. I certainly won’t. [online] Substack.com. Available at: https://substack.com/home/post/p-184073729 [Accessed 20 Jun. 2026].
Mcginnity, F., Privalko, I., Russell, H., Curristan, S., Stapleton, A. and Laurence, J. (2022). ORIGIN AND INTEGRATION: HOUSING AND FAMILY AMONG MIGRANTS IN THE 2016 IRISH CENSUS. [online] Available at: https://www.esri.ie/system/files/publications/BKMNEXT422_0.pdf.
Rabensteiner, T., Sangwan, N. and Tasciotti, L. (2026). Migration and housing costs: what does international evidence imply for the UK? [online] Gov.uk. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migration-and-housing-costs-what-does-international-evidence-imply-for-the-uk/migration-and-housing-costs-what-does-international-evidence-imply-for-the-uk-accessible.
See Coyne (2025)
See Harris (2026)
See BBC (2015)
Central Statistics Office (CSO) (2025a)
See Department of Housing (2026)
See Rabensteiner, Sangwan and Tasciotti (2026)
See Central Statistics Office (CSO) (2012)
See Byrne (2025)
Great piece Shane. Really compelling argument, the best z I've seen on this issue. I wouldn't entirely agree that those who focus on immigration, in light of this evidence, must be racist. I think it's slightly more nuanced than that. But only slightly mind you
These posts actively de-rot my brain on the tube 🙌🏻